Much like how things often operate in the political sphere, once one election cycle is over, we immediately shift to the next. The 2026 midterms have already received substantial attention, and for good reason. Currently, Republicans hold a trifecta — the House, Senate, and Presidency — but this could be impacted by the 2026 midterms. However, even outside of the House and Senate elections, other statewide elections have already received heavy interest and intrigue. This includes the 2026 gubernatorial elections, and given Michigan’s reputation as a swing state, the Michigan gubernatorial election has already gained attention.
Currently, the Democrats and Republicans have several declared candidates. The current Democratic Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, is currently in the lead for the Democratic nomination, while on the Republican side, John James appears to hold a firm lead. However, an independent candidate has generated considerable buzz since declaring his candidacy — Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan.
Mike Duggan has served as Detroit’s 75th mayor since 2014. Upon his election, Detroit was facing a deep economic crisis, as it filed for bankruptcy in 2013, just before Duggan’s victory. This bankruptcy followed nearly five straight decades of aggressive population loss, significant increases in crime, and the decay of city infrastructure as streets that were once lined with quaint bungalows, apartment complexes, and other buildings rapidly deteriorated into a ruin of what they once were. However, in the past decade, Detroit has seen early signs of a rebound. This includes the revitalization of several neighborhoods, including Corktown, Midtown, New Center, and Woodbridge. Detroit saw population growth for the first time in decades between the 2022 and 2023 census estimates, and this growth continued in the 2024 census estimates. Additionally, under Mayor Duggan, Detroit successfully eliminated several billion dollars of debt and saw some of the lowest homicide rates in decades. This is not to say Mayor Duggan is solely responsible for all of these positive developments, but it is a sign of more stable governance, especially after the instability that helped to worsen Detroit’s decline in the decades prior.
Despite these positive accomplishments, a question remains: can Mike Duggan win as an independent? Historically, independents rarely fared well in Michigan gubernatorial elections. The 1982 gubernatorial election was the last time a third-party candidate received more than 2% of the vote. However, many of these independent and third-party candidates lack meaningful, statewide name recognition. While it’s unlikely that Mike Duggan has the same name recognition as someone like current Governor Whitmer, given Detroit is the largest city in Michigan and the metropolitan area encompasses nearly 43% of the state’s population, Mayor Duggan undoubtedly has much more name recognition than previous independent or third-party candidates.
However, just because Mayor Duggan has name recognition does not mean he has a legitimate shot at winning the election. Given that Mayor Duggan was affiliated with the Democratic Party before his gubernatorial campaign, many people will likely affiliate Duggan with the Democratic Party, even if he’s officially listed as an independent. Some may also view Duggan’s candidacy as an attempt to be a “spoiler candidate”, although currently, the platform that Mayor Duggan is running on does appear to strike some middle ground, in which the focus is overwhelmingly on economic and affordability concerns rather than social and cultural issues. This includes a heavy emphasis on affordable housing, rebuilding public education, and making the state more attractive to young professionals. While this could be beneficial for Mayor Duggan, many Michigan voters are invested in social and cultural issues, which could pose an obstacle to Mayor Duggan if asked about those specific issues.
While I do believe that Mayor Duggan has a small chance of winning the gubernatorial election as an independent, this would require almost every possible development in this race to go in his favor. This would include pulling a significant proportion of both Democratic and Republican voters while also winning, or nearly winning, the independent voting bloc. Additionally, Mayor Duggan would have to continue to separate himself from his previous affiliation with the Democratic Party, because Democratic voters who are deciding between Mayor Duggan and the Democratic nominee may be more likely to vote for the candidate who shares their party affiliation, even if the actual policies between the two have significant overlap. And while it is true that both major U.S. political parties hold low overall approval ratings — especially the Democratic Party — given the era of political polarization we are currently in, it is unlikely that we would see an independent win an election against two legitimate major party candidates. Though, of course, one should expect the unexpected in today’s political environment.
