Many of the sports analysts are projecting that Michigan will land in the BCS Sugar Bowl. Wouldn’t that be something in Brady Hoke’s first year as head coach?! The seniors also have only gone to one bowl game: last year’s crushing loss at the Gator Bowl by Mississippi State. The team came into this season with a mission, to be the best team in the Big ten. They fell short of that but defiantly impressed us all and played with a real swagger. A Sugar Bowl bid would definitely cap off this program’s historic season.
Michigan (10-2) currently sits at #16 in the BCS. To be eligible for a BCS Bowl, a team needs to achieve a ranking of #14 or greater in the BCS standings. So with no way to directly influence their standings, they will need to rise indirectly, having teams ahead in the rankings lose. Ultimately they need to have two teams close ahead of them to lose and pick up a 3rd loss on the season. I see five teams ranked ahead of Michigan that could lose and take a tumble behind Michigan: Wisconsin, MSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Houston. Oklahoma is a tricky situation and I will explain that.
Right in front of UM is #15 Wisconsin; they are playing #13 MSU in the Big Ten Championship game this weekend. The winner will be headed to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl while the loser will have a 10-3 record and most likely fall in the rankings behind Michigan. To be safe though, it would be best that Wisconsin lose because they are the highest in the rankings already. MSU is #9 in the Coaches poll which factors into the BCS rankings so a loss for them won’t entirely guarantee that they fall behind Michigan. It is still a good situation because one team HAS to lose, helping our cause.
The next team on the list is #14 Georgia (10-2). They are matched up against #1 LSU in the SEC Championship Game this weekend. A Georgia loss will most likely guarantee that they fall behind Michigan given that they are so close to UM in the polls and will have 3 losses. LSU will remain the clear #1 in the BCS. Given LSU’s talent, I do not see Georgia pulling off the upset.
Another team to watch is #10 Oklahoma. They are matching up with their instate rival #3 Oklahoma State. If Oklahoma loses they too would be 10-3 and could fall behind Michigan but this might be long stretch given they are playing a top in the country. On the other side of the matchup, Oklahoma could win and possibly claim the #2 spot as well as the bid for the BCS Championship Game. This would kick Alabama out and into the Sugar Bowl, leaving Michigan completely out. So this game has its benefits and losses of either team winning. I would argue that is would be best for Oklahoma to win to garuntee that OK State doesn’t claim the #2 ranking.
The last team that could help us is Houston. They currently are undefeated but are playing in the Conference USA championship vs. #24 Southern Miss. With a loss, Houston will definitely take a tumble in the rankings, possibly past Michigan. I do not see this happening however with the stellar QB Case Keenum and the record setting season he is having.
The scenario most likely to get Michigan into the Sugar Bowl would be for Wisconsin, Georgia, and Oklahoma State to lose. If that happens, Michigan will take the #14 ranking, therefore being BCS Bowl eligible. From there it is up to the Sugar Bowl Committee to pick Michigan for their bowl. They have a great reason to seeing all of the media support for Michigan. Many analysts are picking UM to matchup with Houston, seeing the Houston goes undefeated. Remember that the Sugar Bowl Committee is trying to pick the top teams that will create the most buzz as well as a great matchup. The media and analysts love the matchup of a recovering powerhouse (Michigan) vs. an undefeated team from a non-BCS conference (Houston). Also, Michigan is always a strong bid for these committees because of the expansive alumni and fan base that would attend the game. They are the prime target for any bowl game committee.
For now all we can do for now is watch how this weekend plays out, hoping the perfect scenario aligns, propelling us to our 2nd ever Sugar Bowl Appearance.
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